2:00PM Water Cooler 5/16/2024 | bare capitalism

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chicken Music of the Day

Orchard Oriole (Orchard), Hamilton–Royal Botanical Gardens (Princess Level), Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. “Younger male, photographed, audio recorded. Persevering with.” Freeway roar, I believe, however a reasonably track.

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In Case You Would possibly Miss…

(1) North Carolina legislature bails for the weekend with out passing the anti-masking invoice, so there’s nonetheless time to name.

(2) New Cohen’s testimony within the Bragg trial, plus theories of the case.

(3) Biden and Trump debate.

(4) The Impressionists and the Paris Commune.

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Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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2024

Lower than a half a yr to go!

RCP Ballot Averages, Might 10:

Nationwide outcomes now transferring Trump’s means. The entire Swing States (extra right here) at the moment are in Trump’s column, together with Michigan and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania leans extra Trump this week than final. After all, it goes with out saying that these are all state polls, due to this fact dangerous, and a lot of the outcomes are inside the margin of error. Now, if both candidate begins breaking away in factors, as an alternative of tenths of a degree…. NOTE I modified the notation: Up and down arrows for will increase or decreases over final week, circles for no change. Purple = Trump. Blue could be Biden if he have been main wherever, however he isn’t.

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Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Michael Cohen pressed on his crimes and lies as protection assaults key Trump hush cash trial witness” [Associated Press]. “Cohen is prosecutors’ remaining witness — a minimum of for now — as they attempt to show Trump schemed to suppress a harmful story he feared would torpedo his 2016 presidential marketing campaign after which falsified enterprise data to cowl it up.” Scheming to “suppress a harmful story” is just not per se unlawful, and is commonplace fare in any marketing campaign; definitely this isn’t the thing offense. Extra: “Over a number of days on the witness stand, Cohen positioned Trump straight on the heart of the alleged scheme to stifle detrimental tales to fend off injury to his White Home bid.” Ditto. Extra: ” Trump’s tone modified when, months later, Cohen pleaded responsible to federal campaign-finance fees and implicated him within the hush cash scheme. Trump was not charged with against the law associated to the federal investigation.” • Cohen’s responsible plea to federal marketing campaign fees appears to be the one untethered crime floating about, so possbily Bragg intends to make that the thing offense that converts the putative enterprise data violations into felonies. In that case, (a) does a state actually get to implement Federal legislation, (b) why on earth didn’t the Feds cost Trump once they had the prospect, and (c) the enterprise data violations instrument place after the marketing campaign finance violations, so isn’t this principle a reversal of trigger and impact? Looks as if Bragg is reaching.

Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Trump New York hush-money trial is way from a slam dunk” [BBC]. From April: “Cohen pleaded responsible in 2018 to federal marketing campaign violations as a part of the alleged cover-up, which he stated was directed by Mr Trump.” • As above, however be aware this helpfully erases the timeline (level (c)).

Trump (R): (Bragg/Merchan): “Nearly finish instances for Trump trial spectacle however there’s nonetheless room for fireworks: 3 issues to look at” [Andrew McCarthy, FOX]. “It’s undoubtedly true that, to convict Trump, the jury should consider Cohen’s uncorroborated testimony that Trump knew – from the Trump Group’s then-CFO, Allen Weisselberg – the small print of how Cohen was going to be paid. Prosecutors have projected the phantasm that they’ve provided tons of proof to corroborate Cohen. However they’ve solely corroborated parts of the story that aren’t incriminating and never in (a lot) dispute. On the disputed concern of Trump’s way of thinking, there isn’t a help for the important thing Weisselberg story. It’s simply Cohen’s phrase.” And, oddly, the prosecution has not referred to as Weisselberg. On the enterprise data offense: “Retainers* shouldn’t have to be in writing, so the truth that there isn’t a written retainer does . Cohen was holding himself out as Trump’s lawyer all through 2017, he was obtainable to work for Trump every time requested, and he did in reality do lawyer work for him in 2017-18. And the Trump Group knew it was paying for greater than the Stormy Daniels NDA. So how might it’s fraudulently false for the Trump org CFO to consult with funds to Cohen as pursuant to a retainer? .” A protection case? “Costello is a savvy New York protection lawyer who represented Cohen initially of the federal investigation. He has been launched from his attorney-client confidentiality obligation (as a result of Cohen waived confidentiality when he advised the feds about his discussions with Costello). On Tuesday, Costello testified earlier than a Home committee, asserting that Cohen’s testimony was rife with lies – a declare Costellos says he can again up with emails, texts, and many others. Costello additionally testified to that impact within the grand jury. I anticipate Blanche will use Costello’s Home and grand jury testimony in attacking Cohen on cross-examination.” As well as, Costello may testify. Federal Marketing campaign Finance. “Crew Trump ought to renew its request to name former FEC official Bradley Smith as an professional witness within the protection case to elucidate why NDAs usually are not actionable marketing campaign expenditures underneath federal legislation. Choose Merchan has beforehand indicated he wouldn’t allow such professional testimony, rationalizing that solely the court docket ought to instruct the jury on the legislation. However Merchan has let Cohen and David Pecker clarify to the jury that they believed the NDAs violated federal legislation. Particularly on condition that Bragg has no authority to implement federal legislation, and Merchan has no experience in it, shouldn’t the jury hear from a minimum of one one who really is aware of one thing in regards to the topic?” • Extra to return! NOTE * That is presumably the reply to an argument that “Cohen was not a Trump’s lawyer as a result of he wasn’t on retainer,” which, if current within the protection, I missed.

Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “May Manhattan court docket acquit Trump?” [Washington Times]. “Having served on three Manhattan juries, I’d not be stunned if the 12 women and men listening to New York v. Donald J. Trump acquit him of all fees. In two civil actions and one felony case, my fellow jurors have been critical, skilled, and movingly civic-minded. A quiet, solemn patriotism infused our deliberations. A number of jurors stated that we should always respect the justice system as a result of we’d want it to respect us sometime… With 48% of registered voters telling Reuters-Ipsos final month that Mr. Trump’s Kafkaesque circumstances are “extreme and politically motivated” (41% disagree), even a Manhattan jury might scrap Mr. Bragg’s contraption. If only one juror agrees, this case will finish with a hung jury. And if ‘lurid however authorized’ displays the opinions of 12 of my fellow Manhattanites — who are typically robust however honest — then former President Donald Trump will likely be acquitted on all 34 fees and return the place he belongs: the marketing campaign path.” Would definitely be true if the defendant have been anyone however Donald Trump. Oh, and this snark is fairly good: “Mr. Trump faces 34 counts of alleged falsification of enterprise data as a result of his bookkeepers posted ledger entries for checks to Mr. Cohen as ‘authorized bills.’ Would Mr. Bragg desire false descriptions like ‘plumbing provides’ or ‘marble tiles’? Mr. Trump faces jail for reporting authorized bills as ‘authorized bills,’ which is authorized.”

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Biden (D) Abortion:

If solely the Democrats had codified Roe, as an alternative of fundraising of it.

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“Biden and Trump Are Set to Debate—For Now” [NBC]. “Two years in the past, former President Donald Trump bullied the Republican Nationwide Committee into passing a decision declaring zero cooperation with the non-partisan Fee on Presidential Debates. Trump was satisfied the group that has run the occasions since 1988 was stacked in opposition to him. He additionally needed the debates to start out sooner, effectively earlier than the early-vote window opened. Trump insisted to anybody who would pay attention that he was removed from afraid of sharing a stage with President Joe Biden, and would welcome as many as 20 such encounters. Nicely, the double-digit double dates stays a protracted shot, nevertheless it appears just like the ex-President is getting a lot of what he needed in dealing with the present one. Wednesday morning, Biden and his marketing campaign issued their very own phrases for a pair of one-on-one debates, and most of them matched up properly with Trump’s red-line calls for. The Fee on Presidential Debates is ignored within the chilly, the primary session might come as early as subsequent month, and the entire thing could be captured for a nationwide tv viewers.” Extra drama to return: “[E]ven in accepting Biden’s topline phrases, Trump was nonetheless holding out hopes that there could be an viewers, one thing the Biden proposal explicitly excluded. ‘I’d strongly advocate greater than two debates and, for pleasure functions, a really massive venue,’ Trump wrote on his social media platform, Reality Social. Trump can be more likely to elevate objections to Biden’s time period that may mute a candidate’s microphone when it’s not their flip—primarily silencing Trump’s fixed interjections that, 4 years in the past, resulted in an exasperated Biden muttering with disdain: ‘Will you shut up, man?’ And nobody has but stated the place, bodily, the TBD host would stage these occasions, no matter whether or not megadonors and hardcore activists are within the room or not.”

“Jake Tapper and Dana Bash tapped to reasonable CNN debate” [The Hill]. “CNN has chosen anchors Jake Tapper and Dana Bash to reasonable the primary presidential debate of the 2024 cycle between President Biden and former President Trump. The June 27 debate, which will likely be broadcast reside, will happen at CNN’s Atlanta studios and received’t characteristic a studio viewers. CNN’s is the primary of two debates Biden and Trump agreed to Wednesday, with a second deliberate for September, hosted by ABC. ABC has but to announce moderators for the September debate.”

“Why Biden did the controversy throwdown, Trump agreed, and the dangers for either side” [Howard Kurtz, FOX]. “Candidates debate once they should debate. That’s why Donald Trump didn’t through the primaries. That’s why Joe Biden, battling abysmal ballot numbers, stunned everybody yesterday by agreeing to 2 debates. And why Trump, who’s been demanding a side-by-side comparability… instantly accepted.” And: “It’s arduous to overstate the significance of those two occasions, which greater than any debate since Ronald Reagan advised Jimmy Carter in 1980 ‘there you go once more,’ might resolve the election. Biden was on monitor to lose the election. He’s been shielded and hardly making any information, even earlier than Trump’s hush cash trial started. His staff should belatedly acknowledge this. Joe needed to do one thing to shake issues up. The Biden camp believes that his superior data will develop into evident in no-frills debates. There’s additionally a conviction that the extra the general public sees of Trump, who’s been cooped up in a Manhattan courthouse, the higher it’s for the president. However, Trump’s sheer bodily presence, and bombastic fashion, will current a good distinction to Biden’s aged mien and skinny voice (although they’re solely 3-½ years aside). And belief me, as somebody who’s sat down with Donald for an hour-long interview, he can focus and train self-discipline when he desires to.” • See the RCP chart I run every Friday; the race may be very shut. Each candidates might be excused for taking whichever aspect of “half empty or half full” they take. It appears the candidates themselves every determined to interrupt a stalemate and inject volatility into the race themselves (with out ready for occasions). Nonetheless, I’d speculate that, simply as within the markets, volatility most favors these with the deepest pockets, and Biden has extra money than Trump. OTOH, a Trump greenback goes farther than a Biden greenback. So… let’s wait and see.

“Scripps Information Unique: Trump prepared to incorporate Kennedy in debates with Biden” [WKBW]. “In an unique interview with Scripps Information on Thursday, former President Donald Trump stated he would have ‘no drawback’ sharing the controversy stage with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. if the impartial presidential candidate met the polling threshold… ‘I’d haven’t any drawback if he received regardless of the threshold is,’ Trump advised Benson. ‘However he’s very low and appears to be heading within the different path, within the flawed path.’”

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Kennedy (I): “R.F.Ok. Jr. Isn’t a Spoiler Now, Ballot Suggests, however He May Be in November” [New York Times]. “Mr. Kennedy attracts disproportionately from voters who often again Democrats however have defected to Mr. Trump. In actual fact, Mr. Kennedy really takes extra Biden 2020 voters than Trump ’20 voters, although Mr. Kennedy attracts extra Trump ’24 voters than Biden ’24 voters. He drew 8 % of Mr. Biden’s 2020 supporters to six % of those that backed Mr. Trump, although extra of his supporters would again Mr. Trump in the present day. Equally, Mr. Kennedy drew 7 % of self-identified Democrats, in contrast with 4 % of Republicans. And he drew 8 % of those that backed Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate within the 4 states the place we requested about them, in contrast with 6 % of those that backed the Republican candidate. It might sound complicated that Mr. Kennedy is disproportionately robust among the many sliver of Trump voters who often vote Democratic, nevertheless it makes quite a lot of sense. The polls present many disengaged younger and nonwhite voters who often lean Democratic, however have soured a lot on Mr. Biden that they backed Mr. Trump within the polls. However it’s not as in the event that they love Mr. Trump. They voted in opposition to him final time, in any case, and so they often vote Democratic. So it’s straightforward to see why these voters would like Mr. Kennedy to Mr. Trump. All of this provides as much as an uncommon takeaway: Mr. Kennedy could also be profitable over voters whom Mr. Biden might have with a purpose to win, even when these voters have soured on him a lot that they wouldn’t vote for him even when Mr. Kennedy weren’t on the poll. He is probably not a spoiler now, however maybe he may very well be if Mr. Biden’s standing improved.” • I’d guess it’s not solely “disengaged younger and nonwhite voters.”

Kennedy (I): On not ‘specifically dependable authority:

I can’t discover this confirmed wherever, and I don’t see something on this in Kennedy’s feed. After all, the Democrats would, however that doesn’t imply that they did. Readers?

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PA: “Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. make the poll in Pennsylvania?” [Inquirer]. “Impartial candidates and third-party nominees should file petitions for poll entry by August 1. As an impartial, Kennedy Jr., must file 5,000 signatures of registered voters and pay the state $200. That’s a comparatively low threshold within the nation’s sixth most populous state. Delaware, which has a fraction of Pennsylvania’s inhabitants, units a signature threshold of 1% of registered voters — which for this election is greater than 7,600. Missouri, which has roughly half of Pennsylvania’s inhabitants, has a threshold of 10,000. The petition signers might be from wherever in Pennsylvania, belong to a political celebration, or be unaffiliated. A spokesperson for Kennedy’s marketing campaign stated volunteers will quickly start gathering signatures in Pennsylvania. Campaigns might begin filling them out in mid-February…. Kennedy’s petition signatures in Pennsylvania might want to survive anticipated authorized challenges from the Democratic Nationwide Committee or outdoors teams. The DNC has launched an offensive in opposition to Kennedy, deploying cell billboards to areas the place he’s campaigning that blast Kennedy for receiving donations from Trump donors.”

Spook Nation

“US intel chief warns of accelerating threats to 2024 election” [Agence France Presse]. • Due to course they’re. That is so, so silly. Electoral politics is a tough sport and a troublesome enterprise. Even one of the best of consultants, operatives, campaigners miss the mark, after spending huge quantities of cash and energy. Will we actually consider some Russki influencers, irrespective of how dastardly — are going to have the ability to have an effect on this course of — digitally! — to the slightest diploma? It’s demented, like imagining a mouse can assault an elephant. The true agenda right here, I’d submit, is ending up with a system whereby the spooks certify elections as being “clear.” Little question that’s what the spooks need, however can we? Anyhow, right here we go once more:

–>

The Wizard of Kalorama™

“Obama will headline fundraiser to spice up Democratic Senate candidates” [NBC]. “The June 5 occasion in Potomac, Maryland, will characteristic Obama and Sen. Chris Van Hollen, the state’s junior senator, discussing ‘the significance of defending Democrats’ Senate majority and the stakes of the election,’ a Democratic Senatorial Marketing campaign Committee aide stated. Longtime Democratic donors Jeffrey and Lora Drezner are internet hosting the night fundraiser, in keeping with a duplicate of the invitation.” • The Drezners usually are not AIPAC. However they’re Sidwell Pals! So a pleasant tight little neighborhood.

Pandemics

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

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Maskstravaganza

“North Carolina Senate panel advances anti-mask invoice” [WRAL]. “Senate Judiciary Committee Republican voted in a voice vote with Democrats objecting to advance a legislation to boost penalties for individuals who put on masks whereas committing one other crime or for individuals who block site visitors. Home Invoice 237 now strikes to a different Senate committee. However the invoice additionally removes a provision that exempts individuals who put on masks for well being and security causes that was added in 2020 through the coronavirus pandemic.”

“North Carolina Home Invoice 237” [LegisScan]. Right here in related half is the textual content:

Senator Buck Newton: “The invoice’s sponsor, Sen. Buck Newton, R-Wilson County, stated the invoice is just not supposed to “prosecute granny for sporting a masks within the Walmart — except she was sticking steaks in her bag.” • What a knuckle-dragger. If what he says is true, then why delete part 6? Let Granny put on her masks after which prosecute her for shoplifting, which is already unlawful, masks or no. Here’s what HB237 outlaws:

Nonetheless, the invoice has not but handed:

(For numbers to name, see yesterday’s submit right here.)

In the meantime, Maskless Mandy — quondam Secretary of the North Carolina Division of Well being and Human Providers — will likely be in-state shortly; I ponder if she’ll have something to say:

Sequelae: Covid

“”Spanish flu,” encephalitis lethargica, and COVID-19: Progress made, classes discovered, and instructions for future analysis” [European Journal of Neurology]. “The so-called “Spanish flu” was the primary globally documented viral pandemic and was lively principally between 1917 and 1920 in Europe, the USA, and different nations. It differed from different globally prevalent and lively ailments similar to polio or measles insofar as its infectious unfold was in distinct waves that resulted in a excessive mortality of kids and adults. It killed >20 million folks worldwide, greater than had died through the first World Struggle. It incapacitated massive areas of city residing and led to the closing of colleges, universities, and different establishments. Public transportation was affected, as was any form of public communication. Though the mode of transmission by air was ultimately recognized because the most probably mode of transmission, safety from being was not clear when the pandemic hit initially. It introduced alongside a widespread concern of contagion. Sporting of masks, hand hygiene, avoiding public gatherings, and isolation of the diseased in particular hospital wards have been the primary measures of safety for people. Roughly 2-3 million folks developed an acute neurological dysfunction named ‘encephalitis lethargica,’ which had a excessive mortality of roughly 40%, receded solely slowly, and within the mid-Nineteen Twenties had virtually disappeared. Late, continual kinds endured and occurred as much as the late Thirties, and extreme circumstances have been principally handled in psychiatric establishments. Some sufferers additionally developed a postencephalitic parkinsonism (PEP). .” • Appears like we dodged a bullet on an encephalitis lethargica equal; Lengthy Covid is dangerous, however doesn’t have a mortality fee of 40%. Aside from that, we don’t appear to have discovered a lot. And given our Covid expertise, the “repression within the public consciousness” doesn’t appear “exceptional” in any respect, however moderately the norm.

Origins Debate

“HHS suspends federal funding for EcoHealth Alliance” [STAT]. “The Biden administration has suspended federal grants issued to EcoHealth Alliance, the infectious illness analysis group caught up in an argument over its work in China, and plans to bar it from receiving future funding. The Well being and Human Providers Division dispatched its resolution in a letter Tuesday, two weeks after Home lawmakers grilled EcoHealth President Peter Daszak on the nonprofit’s analysis, oversight, and security measures, notably its work with the Wuhan Institute of Virology, and contentious infectious illness research often known as gain-of-function analysis.” • Ought to have been carried out way back, even leaving Wuhan and potential gain-of-function analysis apart; EcoHealth was clearly on omnishambles (Self-importance Truthful, 2022). Though one may certainly query whether or not omnishambularity served different functions….

Elite Maleficence

First, this atrocity:

(The drawing fashion at prime left is pervasive — be aware the extraordinarily innocent and tentative half-smile — and it makes my again enamel itch.)

Now, this atrocity:

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Lambert right here: Affected person readers, I’m going to should rethink this fantastically formatted desk. Appears like Biobot information nonetheless capabilities, CDC variant information capabilities, ER visits are lifeless, New York hospitalization appears to be lifeless since 5/1 [No, it’s alive!], when CDC stopped necessary hospital information assortment, Walgreens capabilities, Cleveland Clinic capabilities, CDC traveler’s information capabilities, New York Occasions dying information has stopped. (Word that the 2 metrics the hospital-centric CDC cared about, hospitalization and deaths, have each gone down). Ideally I’d change hospitalization and dying information, however I’m undecided how. I may additionally increase the wastewater part to incorporate (yech) Verily information, H5N1 if I can get it. Options and sources welcome.

TABLE 1: Each day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new in the present day; all others usually are not up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (Biobot) Slight upward motion, supported by yesterday’s Walgreen’s positivity.

[2] (Biobot) No backward revisons….

[3] (CDC Variants) FWIW, on condition that the mannequin fully missed KP.2.

[4] (ER) CDC appears to have killed this off, because the hyperlink is damaged, I believe in favor of this factor. I’ll attempt to affirm. UPDATE Sure, depart it to CDC to kill a web page, after which announce it was archived a day later. And heaven forfend CDC ought to clarify the place to go to get equal information, if any. I preferred the ER information, as a result of it appeared actually arduous to sport.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) The info is now updating once more. I suppose to a tame epidemiologist it appears like “endemicity,” however to me it appears like one other tranche of lethality.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Nonetheless down. “Maps, charts, and information offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.

[7] (Walgreens) Slight uptick.

[8] (Cleveland) Leveling out.

[9] (Vacationers: Posivitity) Flattens.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants) JN.1 dominates totally. Nonetheless no point out of KP.2

[11] Appears just like the Occasions isn’t reporting dying information any extra? Perhaps I want to return to The Economist….

Stats Watch

Employment State of affairs: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of folks claiming unemployment advantages within the US fell by 10,000 to 222,000 on the week ending Might eleventh, lower than market expectations of 220,000. It was the third-highest studying this yr, holding the claims effectively above the final 9 months’ common, and pointing to the weakening labor market within the US.”

Manufacturing: “United States Industrial Manufacturing MoM” [Trading Economics]. “Industrial manufacturing within the US was little modified in April, following a 0.1% enhance in March and lacking market expectations of a 0.1% development. Manufacturing output, which makes up 78% of whole manufacturing, decreased 0.3 %, in contrast with market forecast of 0.1% enhance. Additionally, mining output decreased 0.6 %, largely due to an 18.1 % decline within the index for coal mining. However, the output of utilities elevated 2.8 %.”

Manufacturing: “United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index within the US remained constructive however dropped 11 factors to 4.5 in Might 2024, from a two-year excessive of 15.5 in April, beneath market expectations of 8.”

Housing: “United States Housing Begins” [Trading Economics]. “Housing begins within the US rose 5.7% month-over-month to an annualized fee of 1.36 million in April 2024, reversing from a downwardly revised 1.287 million degree in March. Figures got here as soon as once more beneath forecasts of 1.42 million, as excessive charges and residential costs proceed to weigh on dwelling builders.”

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The Bezzle: “The hunt for uncommon bitcoin is nearing an finish” [Ars Technica]. “In the identical means a greenback is made up of 100 cents, one bitcoin consists of 100 million satoshis—or sats, for brief. However not all sats are made equal. These produced within the yr bitcoin was created are thought-about classic, like a high quality wine. Different coveted sats have been a part of transactions made by bitcoin’s inventor. Some correspond with a selected transaction milestone. These and numerous different properties make some sats extra scarce than others—and due to this fact extra useful. The very rarest can promote for tens of hundreds of thousands of instances their face worth; in April, a single sat, usually value $0.0006, offered for $2.1 million. [Billy] Restey is a part of a small, tight-knit band of hunters attempting to root out these uncommon sats, that are scattered throughout the bitcoin community. They do that by depositing batches of bitcoin with a crypto alternate, then withdrawing the identical quantity—a bit of like depositing money with a financial institution teller and instantly taking it out once more from the ATM outdoors. The cash they obtain in return usually are not the identical they deposited, giving them a recent stash by way of which to sift. They rinse and repeat.” • Completely productive exercise, effectively value the power expended.

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Right this moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 61 Greed (earlier shut: 59 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 46 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Might 16 at 3:18:03 PM ET

Zeitgeist Watch

“At all times Indignant? How Pent-Up Fury Sabotages the Physique” [Inside Hook]. “Uncontrolled anger has a protracted listing of unsavory uncomfortable side effects. Assume: complications, indigestion, insomnia, eczema and muscular stress (particularly within the neck and shoulders). Power anger may even have an effect on whole methods within the physique — a research revealed in Immunology demonstrated that unchecked anger may even suppress the immune system, which makes you extra inclined to infections and sicknesses. This line actually caught out to me: ‘People with beneath common ranges of anger management have been proven to heal considerably slower than topics much less disposed to this emotion.’ The important thing phrase there’s ‘management.’ It might be ridiculous to counsel that anger isn’t an actual and useful emotion within the human arsenal; the identical research discusses anger’s advantageous position for our ancestors, priming their our bodies earlier than a combat. However we reside in a unique age — and slamming your hand in opposition to a laptop computer is just not the identical as battling a beast within the jungle. If you’re offended, your blood stress, coronary heart fee and adrenaline ranges are all elevated. This places a large pressure on the physique, and particularly on the cardiovascular system. Indignant brains are swimming in means an excessive amount of cortisol, on a regular basis. This may affect your sense of reminiscence, focus and decision-making…and maybe compel you to do offended little issues (like getting embroiled in a street rage incident), feeding a self-defeatist cycle.” • Varied methods prompt, together with bodily exercise, deep respiration, speaking it out, timeouts, and “experiment” [lambert bangs head on desk].

The Gallery

Not arduous to reply, however what beautiful work:

“‘A Plaything for Wealthy Folks and Fancy Museums’? Reevaluating Impressionism at 150” [Artnet]. “Context, in brief, is vital. ‘Most of the artists are responding to the traumatized residents of Paris after ‘l’année horrible’ [“the terrible year,” as Victor Hugo called the violent series of conflicts rocking Paris from 1870-1871], and you can not have what folks consider as Impressionism… with out contemplating what occurred three years earlier within the capital, which was horrific,’ stated [Mary Morton of the National Gallery]. Consequently, the Impressionists felt a ‘want to maneuver ahead, to forge a brand new path, and never be mired up to now, to maneuver past all of the trauma,’ added [Kimberly Jones at the NGA in Washington]. ‘We’re presenting this so folks perceive what they’ve lived by way of, and why this artwork is forward-thinking, and why there’s a diploma of optimism on this.’…. Because the world they knew shifted beneath them, the Impressionists, conscious that every one might have been misplaced within the latest destruction, took a leap and started exhibiting the poetry and significance of a fleeting second. Their speedy portray method was ideally fitted to this, permitting them to grab an ephemeral impression of sunshine, or any easy act of day by day life. This was certainly radical, and much from frivolous. It was life-affirming, and, for some, a mechanism for survival.” • I’m undecided the subtext on the Paris Commune is appropriate, right here (I imply, “all might have been misplaced.” What could be flawed with shedding Adolph Thiers?) I’m undecided about “artwork as a response to trauma” both. Have we seen any of that from Covid? I imply, aside from Taylor Swift’s tour?

Class Warfare

On “techno-feudalism,” so-called:

If any reader has time on their arms, maybe they might seize a cup of espresso and see how Varoufakis’s thesis holds collectively.

Asking for my vote:

Information of the Wired

“I Don’t Need To Spend My One Wild And Treasured Life Dealing With Google’s AI Search” [Aftermath]. Glorious rant: “Google’s AI search has arrived, uninvited, to my browser, and I can not make it depart. It isn’t simply that it serves me crap every time I enter a query into my search bar, however that I’ve to attend for all of the crap I don’t need within the first place. Let me inform you a narrative from my day: I used to be paying invoices, and I needed to doublecheck that the variety of episodes of our podcast, Aftermath Hours, squared with what our producers had billed for. I typed “Aftermath hours spotify” into my browser window, which–relying after I’ve final cleared my historical past–both autofills the URL for the podcast on Spotify or takes me to Google search outcomes, the place our Spotify web page is the highest consequence. However now, after I get Google, I’ve to attend by way of an almost three-second pause earlier than AI details about the podcast seems on the prime of the web page, adopted by a hyperlink to Spotify and different outcomes. Whereas I recognize that, on this occasion, the AI-generated details about the podcast is appropriate, this data is just not what I’m searching for, and I’ve to attend three seconds for it to point out up simply so I can ignore it. These three seconds are wrecking me. I’m not a kind of lifehacking sorts who desires to optimize each little bit of their day, however that three second wait is simply sufficient friction that I discover it each time. It’s a small annoyance within the second, however over the course of a day’s queries–any author or editor can inform you that the variety of bizarre searches you do provides up–that friction begins to construct right into a drag. I really feel like to load onto my display so I can scroll previous it. That’s one thing I already take care of when visiting the ad-laden web sites Google search brings up; I don’t want a preview! It makes the already disagreeable expertise of Google search even worse than it already is. Earlier than some stray AI evangelist leaps into the feedback to vow the tech will get higher, I need to be clear that even when it have been instantaneous, I nonetheless wouldn’t need it. I didn’t ask for outcomes from the plagiarism machine!” • I can’t wait….

I actually just like the Midwest Trendy account (having grown up within the Midwest):


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Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of vegetation. Greens are high quality! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! In order for you your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:

TH writes: “So our drive from Westminster California to Trona, California at all times features a lengthy stretch of freeway 395. There’s nothing alongside the route for a lot of miles—I’m going to say take a stab and say 20 (give or take), however I’m by no means paying shut consideration. On that very same be aware, I by no means take into consideration what metropolis I’m in, however in keeping with my cellphone, that is Helendale. We simply needed to cease for the rainbow, and fortunately, my iPhone is wise sufficient to inform me the place I’m. I’ve to look this metropolis up and see if something exists in Helendale moreover desert natural world. I’m afraid I have no idea what the yellow or purple wildflowers are.” Nicely, that is absurdly stunning! I hope it’s a portent!

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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So in case you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get anxious. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

In the event you hate PayPal, you may e-mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I offers you instructions on the best way to ship a test. Thanks!

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