By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Fowl Track of the Day
Southern Scrub-Robin, Little Desert Nature Lodge, Hindmarsh, Victoria, Australia.
In Case You May Miss…
(1) Stormy Daniels takes the stand, Molineux Rule points however.
(2) Vaccine hesitancy and belief in establishments.
(3) Why have children stopped studying?
Politics
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Lower than a 12 months to go!
Nationwide outcomes now transferring Trump’s method. However among the Swing States (extra right here) at the moment are transferring Biden’s method, together with Michigan and Wisconsin, which is little doubt why Trump visited them on his time without work. Pennsylvania, OTOH, simply leaned to Trump. After all, it goes with out saying that these are all state polls, subsequently dangerous. Now, if both candidate begins breaking in factors, as a substitute of tenths of some extent….
* * * Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Testifying in hush cash trial, porn actor Stormy Daniels describes first assembly Trump” [Associated Press]. “Jurors appeared riveted as Daniels described how an preliminary assembly at a golf event, the place they mentioned the grownup movie trade, progressed to a ‘temporary’ sexual encounter that she mentioned Trump initiated after inviting her to dinner and again to his resort suite. After it ended, she mentioned, ‘It was actually exhausting to get my footwear as a result of my palms have been shaking so exhausting,’ she testified. “He mentioned, ‘Oh, it was nice. Let’s get collectively once more, honey bunch,’” Daniels continued. ‘I simply needed to go away.’” • “Honey bunch”?! Trump, from Queens, mentioned that? “I’ll take ‘Issues That By no means Occurred for $500, Alex.” (To be truthful, the phrase is in Daniel’s ebook, as of 2018, however I don’t care; the piss-bed episode within the Steele File is extra believable than “honey bunch.” Tapes, or it didn’t occur.)
Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Stormy Daniels on the stand particulars Trump hush cash settlement: Stay updates” [The Hill]. “Daniels is recalling when she spanked Trump with a rolled up journal earlier than they allegedly had intercourse at their resort encounter in 2006. She testified that Trump would ask her questions solely to chop her off and discuss extra about himself. ‘I had had sufficient of his conceitedness and slicing me off and him not giving me dinner,’ Daniels mentioned. Prosecutor Susan Hoffinger later requested, ‘The place did you swat him?’ ‘Proper on the butt,’ Daniels responded.” • Cue the liberalgasm. No projection right here! (Certainly, one may urge that the identical type of thoughts that invented the episodes within the Steele File invented “honey bunch” — a wonderful brainworm, I confess; quickly it will likely be throughout all the pieces — and the rolled up newspaper, too, the handwriting connecting all three being infantilization, a pervasive liberal Democrat trope).
Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Jurors in Trump Trial Hear Witness Tie the President to the Cost” [New York Times]. “When questioning one of many witnesses — Jeffrey S. McConney, Mr. Trump’s former company controller — prosecutors supplied jurors with their first have a look at a few of these information, together with month-to-month invoices Mr. Cohen submitted to Mr. Trump’s firm. The invoices claimed that Mr. Cohen was repaid for ‘authorized bills’ that arose from a ‘retainer settlement.’ However prosecutors say the purported bills and retainer settlement have been works of fiction. And though Mr. McConney testified that he didn’t know the true nature of the funds, he bolstered the prosecution’s competition that the information have been fishy. When a prosecutor, Matthew Colangelo, requested Mr. McConney whether or not he ever noticed a retainer settlement, he responded ‘I didn’t.’ And when requested if he despatched the bill to the corporate’s authorized division — as was frequent on the Trump Group — he supplied a telling one-word acknowledgment: “No.’ Mr. McConney additionally advised jurors that a lot of the cash for Mr. Cohen had come from Mr. Trump’s private checking account. The corporate despatched 9 of the checks to the White Home for Mr. Trump to signal, Mr. McConney defined… Each phases of the case, the eye-catching sleaze and the stultifying information, are important to proving the fees. New York regulation requires prosecutors to point out that Mr. Trump falsified the information to hide one other crime, on this case, what the prosecution says was .” • In different phrases, campaigning? (I’m additionally doubtful concerning the prosecution’s potential to show intent; I keep in mind a type of “Lunch with the FT” tales, the place a reporter interviewed Trump. On the conclusion, Trump spoke together with his workers (paraphrasing): “Be certain [the reporter’s] invoice is roofed.” The response (quoting): “It’s already taken care of, Mr. Trump.” So Trump’s workers handles a whole lot of issues Trump doesn’t, er, must learn about. I imply, McConney didn’t write “pretend enterprise document” Within the memo subject of the examine, proper?)
Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Jury in Trump trial will get inside look into funds to Michael Cohen” [CBS]. “Two witnesses concerned within the funds to Cohen advised jurors on Monday about how they have been dealt with internally. Jeffrey McConney, the longtime controller for the Trump Group, recalled how the chief monetary officer of the corporate directed him to pay Cohen in month-to-month installments, starting in February 2017. At first, the checks have been issued from a belief that was set as much as handle Trump’s belongings whereas he was in workplace. They finally got here from Trump’s private account, a change that meant his signature was required. Deborah Tarasoff, an accountant on the Trump Group, advised jurors about how she dealt with invoices from Cohen and acquired the checks signed. ‘We might ship them to the White Home for him to signal,’ Tarasoff mentioned, referring to Trump. The funds have been documented in ledger entries.” • I don’t wish to introduce a debater’s level right here, however Trump personally signing the checks would appear to point out he believed they have been on the up-and-up. In any case, absolutely there have been a myriad of how to launder the funds that didn’t contain Trump’s signature?
Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Being Held in Contempt May Not Be Trump’s Largest Downside” [Politico]. “In the event that they have been to try this with Trump’s broadsides because the trial started, the impact might be potent: The jurors would get to see simply how inappropriately Trump has been appearing outdoors the courtroom whereas he has been on trial — and whereas the jurors, whose lives have been upended and completely modified by their participation within the case, have been attempting to hold out their civic duty. In a weird coincidence, nevertheless, Trump might have been saved by none apart from Harvey Weinstein — or, extra to the purpose, the current resolution from New York’s highest court docket that threw out Weinstein’s 2020 conviction on intercourse crimes. The court docket concluded that prosecutors within the Manhattan D.A.’s workplace had improperly launched irrelevant and unduly prejudicial testimony about alleged sexual assaults by Weinstein that have been distinct from these instantly charged within the case. The jury has to date been shielded from Trump’s contempt proceedings. Notably given the Weinstein ruling, prosecutors at the moment are more likely to be cautious of a better court docket later concluding that the choose inadvertently let the federal government back-door the contempt discovering on this method when it in any other case wouldn’t have been admissible.” • That is the Molineux Rule once more, however absolutely the strongest misuse of the rule wouldn’t be the Prosecution’s hypothetical introduction of Trump trashing the Blue jurisdiction jury, however precise witnesses offered?
Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “That is 2024’s new political regular six months from the election” [CNN]. “However in dramatic testimony final week, former White Home communications director Hope Hicks took the stand underneath a prosecution subpoena. In probably essentially the most vital second of the trial to date, a nervous Hicks, who shed tears at one level, appeared to implicate Trump in a method that performed into the prosecution argument when she mentioned that the ex-president admitted to her that he knew his then-fixer Michael Cohen had paid Daniels. She additionally mentioned that Trump felt it was higher to take care of the story after the election than beforehand. However Trump’s lawyer, Emil Bove, extracted a press release underneath cross-examination that might be helpful to bolstering the core protection argument when Hicks mentioned her boss was anxious concerning the Daniels story as a result of it might damage or embarrass members of his household.” • Hicks didn’t actually give the Prosecution a complete lot (Particularly, “higher to take care of” doesn’t say the weight Trump placed on the Daniel’s matter. It’s a paradox — I don’t love Trump, actually, however the contradictions are making my head explode — that the liberal Democrat portrait of Trump is that he’s lawless and shameless, and certainly that’s his political persona; for at the very least section of his base, that’s why they like him. So who cares what Story Daniels mentioned? It’s simply one other lawless and shameless transgression. It’s fully believable to me that Trump cared extra concerning the impact on Melania than the impact on his marketing campaign, and actually occasions proved him proper. Trial of the Century, I do know; maybe I’m getting too deep within the weeds?
* * * Biden (D): “President Biden trails former President Trump. Can he come again?” [William Galson, Brookings Institution]. “A comparability between these surveys signifies that the distribution of the white vote has remained pretty steady, within the combination and between these with and with out faculty levels. In contrast, main shifts away from Biden have occurred amongst Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters. Surprisingly, Trump seems to have gained extra floor amongst college-educated Black and Hispanic voters than with much less educated members of those teams. Equally shocking: Thus far, Trump has elevated his help extra amongst ladies than males. Whether or not this development will survive a Democratic marketing campaign closely targeted on abortion stays to be seen. Additionally vital is the erosion of help for Biden amongst voters ages 30 to 49. That is the cohort most targeted on household formation and most certainly to grow to be first-time householders, suggesting that the surging prices of kid care and month-to-month mortgage funds could also be decreasing their help for the president… The declining fee of inflation (disinflation) does nothing to decrease the price of meals, gasoline, electrical energy, and housing. People are craving for worth decreases (deflation), that are unlikely to happen with no vital recession.” After which there are the swing states. Right here is useful chart. Be aware the exception:
Extra: “Whereas Trump leads on 4 of 5 prime financial issues, Biden has made an efficient case for his efforts to include well being care prices by specializing in specifics corresponding to insulin and prescribed drugs. His problem is to seek out equally compelling specifics in different financial arenas and to influence voters that these efforts are making a distinction of their lives.” It might be that Biden’s “junk charges” strategy — and perhaps even some trust-busting? — might assist with the prices of on a regular basis good and providers. I doubt it, although. Final 12 months, perhaps, however now it’s too late.
Biden (D): “Biden’s quiet comeback could also be over” [Douglas Schoen, the Hill]. “From February via mid-April, polls confirmed Biden, if nonetheless trailing Trump, trending in the suitable path. In reality, there was some extent by which Biden was main Trump in 18 nationwide polls throughout that point. Additional, Biden was racking up a sequence of wins, together with bettering financial sentiment, a key metric the administration was desperately attempting to maneuver the needle on. As well as, the preliminary information fodder surrounding Trump, who had simply begun spending most of his time within the courtroom quite than on the marketing campaign path, consumed the media’s consideration. Whereas Trump was caught in court docket, Biden pulled in large donations to pad his money lead over his opponent. At one Radio Metropolis fundraiser the place Biden was joined by former Presidents Invoice Clinton and Barack Obama, the Biden marketing campaign raised greater than $25 million — a document. For the GOP, Republican infighting was — and nonetheless is — on full show within the Home, damaging the credibility of your entire get together. But, regardless of all this momentum, Biden’s surge seems to have stalled. fter a short interval the place it regarded like Biden had lastly discovered his groove, his numbers are as soon as once more dropping whereas Trump’s rise, and that’s absolutely a worrying signal for Democrats as November quickly approaches.” • Might it’s — hear me out — that the issue is the candidate?
Biden (D): “”We’re Not Promoting Hysteria”: Contained in the Chilly Calculation and Unyielding Optimism of the Biden Mind Belief” [Vanity Fair]. Reads like a solution to final week’s Susie Wiles hagiography. A number of nuts and bolts. In brief type, the Biden marketing campaign could be very nicely funded and is systematically deploying its belongings. B-i–i-g silence on how and infrequently Biden will hit the marketing campaign path. For instance: “[W]hen Biden visited a North Carolina dwelling in March, Flaherty’s staff enlisted the household’s 13-year-old son to publish a video on TikTok, producing greater than 5 million views throughout a variety of websites, the sort of attain a standard rally doesn’t produce.” Intelligent, however flip it over: The marketing campaign clearly doesn’t wish to let Biden out of his bubble. And the brand new buzzword: Relational organizing. “[Rob Flaherty’s] digital turf overlaps together with his extra experimental turf, relational organizing. ‘You need to get individuals to share content material via their family and friends, trusted messengers,’ Flaherty says. ‘That is vital due to what I feel is the second development that’s totally different from ’20. In 2022, half of the content material shared on Instagram was in non-public. So should you’re operating a digital technique that’s aimed simply at reaching individuals of their feeds, you’re lacking the place a whole lot of dialog on the web is going on.’ Getting trusted mates to share political content material, each digitally and face-to-face, might be extraordinarily precious. It is usually troublesome. Final fall, the Biden marketing campaign launched pilot relational organizing packages in Arizona and Wisconsin, battleground states that went for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020 and are up for grabs once more. The outcomes of a pilot effort in North Milwaukee are one purpose for optimism that the marketing campaign can attain middle-class Black voters, whom polls have proven drifting to Trump. A veteran Democratic strategist is extra skeptical. ‘It is smart in idea,’ he says. ‘The issue is it’s all anecdotal. We don’t know sufficient but to say it really works. I imply, you have got a complete voting inhabitants that will get their information from TikTok, proper? Which is why most campaigns now, we simply push all of the buttons. We pay for extra door-to-door canvassing, we pay extra for texting, we pay extra for cellphone banks, we pay extra for digital. However .’” • In different phrases, a greenback in Biden’s funds has a special worth from a greenback in Trump’s; absolutely the numbers are vital, however not determinative. For instance, Trump nonetheless will get a whole lot of earned media. What occurs, for instance, if Bragg does put Trump in jail? Nothing good for Biden, I’m positive.
Biden (D): “Biden voter registration assembly raises eyebrows on Capitol Hill: ‘Election interference’” [Washingon Examiner]. “GOP lawmakers are rising more and more anxious that an govt order issued by President Joe Biden in 2021, which mandated that federal businesses develop voter registration plans with “authorized” outdoors teams, might be unlawfully weaponized this November to spice up Democratic turnout. The Biden administration has framed the unprecedented operation as nonpartisan, although inside paperwork present the federal government hosted a July 2021 order planning name that appeared to serve overwhelmingly as a platform for left-wing organizations to recommend sweeping election coverage modifications…. The assembly notes reviewed by the Washington Examiner, which have been obtained via separate information requests by the conservative Heritage Basis’s Oversight Venture and Basis for Authorities Accountability, present attendees from activist teams mentioned matters corresponding to registering unlawful immigrants and integrating voter registration into public housing as a requirement underneath federal regulation…. The 2021 assembly was digital over the platform Zoom and attended by representatives from the Government Workplace of the President and the Division of Justice, amongst different businesses, in addition to staffers from teams such because the Soros-backed Open Society Coverage Middle, Finish Residents United, and eBay founder Pierre Omidyar’s Democracy Fund.” • Why not enable the NGOs — of each events — to spend as a lot as they like on voter registration, however on a randomly generated record of unregistered prospects? Watch the cash dry up then….
* * * Kennedy (I): “6 months out, a good presidential race with battle between points and attributes: POLL” [ABC]. “Kennedy will get 12% though 77% of his supporters say they know “just a few” or “hardly something” about his positions on the problems. Notably, his supporters are extra apt to be Republicans or GOP-leaning independents (54%) than Democrats and Democratic leaners (42%, a slight distinction given pattern sizes), and in a two-way race, they favor Trump over Biden by 13 factors. That will clarify why Trump attacked Kennedy as a stalking horse in social media posts final week.
* * * “Behind the Curtain: 6% of six states” [Axios]. “Each campaigns are obsessive about six states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These have been the battlegrounds disputed by Donald Trump after the 2020 election. And so they’re the ’24 toss-ups, as rated by The Cook dinner Political Report with Amy Walter. A seventh state, North Carolina, is included in some swing-state polls. It’s rated “Lean R” by Cook dinner. The opposite 43 states are both “stable” or “possible” for one of many events. In our non-public conversations, Democrats are much more anxious about November than Republicans are. Democrats say the race is winnable. Republicans suppose they’re profitable. The swing-state map is an enormous purpose why…. We perked up our ears once we heard a Biden insider use the ‘6% of six states’ formulation as a proxy for the way slim a bunch of voters are thought-about really in play — swing voters in swing states. Republicans are making an identical calculation. A Trump insider advised us that persuadable voters are beneath 10% in each battleground: ‘I feel it’s most likely 6% in Wisconsin however 8% in Michigan, and decrease in Arizona.’… Trump wants to select off one of many Midwestern Blue Wall states he misplaced in 2020 (Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania). Underneath present electoral-vote guidelines in Nebraska and Maine, if Biden holds the Blue Wall, he wins, Axios’ Alex Thompson notes. Many strategists in each events consider Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes might wind up being the decisive state.” • Which is why, expensive readers, I preserve muttering about Pennsylvania.
* * * “Cash isn’t sufficient to easy the trail for Republican candidates hoping to retake the Senate” [Associated Press]. “Pissed off by the seemingly infinite money flowing to Democrats, Republicans aiming to retake the Senate have rallied round candidates with loads of their very own cash. The purpose is to neutralize Democrats’ roughly 2-to-1 monetary benefit, among the many few brilliant spots for a celebration defending twice as many Senate seats as Republicans this 12 months. But it surely additionally dangers elevating untested candidates who may not be ready for the scrutiny typically related to fiercely contested Senate campaigns. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, GOP Senate candidates are being pressed on whether or not they stay within the state. In Montana, the get together’s Senate candidate not too long ago admitted mendacity concerning the circumstances of a gunshot wound he sustained. And in Ohio, the Republican contender pitched himself as financially unbiased however now could also be turning to donors for assist repaying loans he made to his marketing campaign. ‘One of many challenges they face, versus established politicians, is that established politicians have already gone via the method,’ mentioned David Winston, a Republican pollster and senior adviser to Home Republicans.” • Electoral politics is, the truth is, extraordinarily exhausting to do in any respect ranges: Electeds, operatives, strategists. It is perhaps that one factor electoral reform advocates might deal with is making electoral politics simpler; undecided how, however we might begin by outlawing the air struggle, which is extraordinarily costly (because the First Modification is a lifeless letter anyhow, eh?)
* * * “What Went Fallacious With the Third-Celebration Motion This Cycle?” [RealClearPolitics]. “After spending hundreds of thousands on poll entry, No Labels was unable to discover a credible candidate keen to run underneath its banner and the Ahead Celebration has shrunk into irrelevance. With an election cycle that started with a lot hope and enthusiasm for upsetting the duopoly, what went flawed?… Now we have solely had one profitable third get together in our nation’s historical past. That was the founding of right now’s Republican Celebration within the 1850s. At the moment, the Democrat and Whig events have been the dominant events. Nonetheless, because the nation grappled with the difficulty of slavery, each shirked from addressing crucial subject of that technology. So, a bunch of principled People determined to band collectively in a brand new political get together that might take the difficulty head-on…. There are two vital takeaways from this historical past for these eager for a reasonable different. In the beginning, the Republican Celebration was organized round a political philosophy and a galvanizing subject, not the persona of a specific candidate. … Second, the Republican Celebration constructed itself from the bottom up. It nominated candidates for state places of work and for Congress earlier than it had its first presidential nominee. … Each of those parts have been lacking in subsequent third-party makes an attempt and have been within the failed makes an attempt this 12 months.”
Republican Funhouse
“The GOP’s deep generational break up on immigration” [Axios]. “Younger Republicans are notably extra reasonable on immigration than the elders of their get together, in accordance with an Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Ballot…. Most Republicans within the older technology didn’t really feel that media typically portrays immigrants negatively or unfairly, whereas 63% of Gen Z mentioned that it does… Republicans have largely moved the political and coverage dialogue across the border to the suitable, with lawmakers embracing once-fringe concepts corresponding to involving the army. However the survey reveals youthful Republicans might not be absolutely purchased in.” • I’m undecided it’s a voting subject for them, although.
“Noem defends telling story about killing canine in new ebook” [The Hill]. “Noem, thought-about among the many finalists to be former President Trump’s operating mate, has been embroiled in controversy since copies of her ebook, ‘No Going Again,’ grew to become public.” • If Noem wrote that ebook to help her Veep ambitions, what does that say about her judgment?
“RNC chief counsel resigns after two months” [FOX]. “The Republican Nationwide Committee’s chief counsel Charlie Spies has resigned two months after accepting the place. Spies’ departure follows weeks of rising rigidity with RNC officers, a supply acquainted with the state of affairs advised CNN. His hiring rankled many Donald Trump loyalists who seen the veteran Republican lawyer as at odds with the previous president, given his earlier work for Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney and Ron DeSantis.” • Perhaps Spies didn’t get together with Lara Trump?
Pandemics
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
Maskstravaganza
In case your premises are contradictory, you’ll be able to purpose to any conclusion:
⏩VERTLARTNIC DOUBLE FEATURE:
⚫️Masks Are Completely Ineffective And There’s Completely No Level Sporting Them.
⚫️Masks Are So Efficient That They Stopped Us Catching Illnesses in 2020, That’s Why We’re So Sick Now. pic.twitter.com/MF3xRS1WcH— The Vertlartnic (@TheVertlartnic) Might 1, 2024
Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
“The Surprising Drop in Intimate Associate Violence” (press launch) [University of Melbourne]. “Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, with lockdowns and different limits on social gatherings, many expressed issues these restrictions would result in the escalation of home and household violence… However because the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases the fourth wave of its Australian Private Security Survey (PSS) – a posh image emerges difficult additional by the COVID limitations on the analysis itself. The survey has discovered that, right here in Australia, the variety of ladies experiencing intimate associate violence dropped throughout the pandemic, however how does this examine with expectations of a rise in IPV throughout the pandemic?…. In 2021-2022 – whereas COVID lockdowns continued – there was a big lower in 12-month associate violence. It dropped from 2.3 per cent within the 12 months previous to the survey in 2016 to 1.5 per cent throughout 2021-2022. The patterns for cohabiting companions additionally confirmed a big drop in bodily violence and emotional violence from 2016 to 2021-2022. This general sample of decreased cohabiting violence additionally occurred in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, whereas emotional violence decreased within the Australian Capital Territory. Charges have been unchanged in New South Wales, Western Australia, Tasmania, and the Northern Territory.” Be aware that there are a lot of confounders, and the causality is in no way clear. Nonetheless: “[I]t is perhaps that there was some constructive impression from the pandemic. Some households fashioned a solidarity or cohesive connectedness towards the uncontrollable disaster of the pandemic – pulling them collectively quite than fragmenting aside.” • Hmm.
Superstar Watch
Does 3M have a advertising division?
Violet Affleck strolling outdoors along with her mom, with a model new respirator in hand, able to placed on when she enters a public indoor area
Clearly not anti-paparazzi transfer (as some have claimed), simply nicely knowledgeable & nicely protected pic.twitter.com/PEBKlSpsK3
— Sue J (@SMpwrgr) Might 7, 2024
I feel that’s an Aura. 3M, masker to the celebrities! (I’m envisaged a compaign so much just like the “Obtained Milk?” marketing campaign in days of yore, however for respirators.
Elite Maleficence
“Info processing fashion and institutional belief as elements of COVID vaccine hesitancy” [Nature]. “We discover that people with pre-pandemic elevated nervousness and fewer efficient data processing tended to see the vaccine as secure, whereas these with nervousness and simpler data processing seen the vaccine as much less secure. This consequence might replicate a bent amongst people with elevated nervousness and excessive data processing capacities to retain the choice autonomy and on the similar time, on account of negativity bias, to be extra delicate to destructive details about the vaccines. Elevated ranges of paranoia didn’t modulate relations between drift charges and vaccination choices. As in prior outcomes it was related to much less constructive notion of vaccine security. This destructive impression was absolutely mediated via diminished belief within the CDC. Paranoia has lengthy been related to difficulties creating belief that result in pervasive interpersonal challenges. Our outcomes lengthen this dynamic to establishments: lack of belief in public establishments might generate extra social challenges for these people. We discover that superstition and authoritarian aggression have been negatively associated to self-reported notion of vaccine security, whereas authoritarian submission could also be linked to a bent to relinquish the choice to an institutional authority.” • Hmm. So the “vax and chill out” crowd have been “authoritarian submissives”? What do readers consider this text?
TABLE 1: Every day Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new right now; all others usually are not up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (Biobot) Our curve has now flattened out at a stage far above valleys underneath Trump. Not an incredible victory. Be aware additionally the realm “underneath the curve,” in addition to peaks. That space is bigger underneath Biden than underneath Trump, and it appears to be rising steadily if inconsistently.
[2] (Biobot) No backward revisons….
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.2 has entered the chat, at the very least within the mannequin. Commentary:
What CDC projected final week was utterly incorrect, not even near what got here to fruition, their forecasting potential is nonexistent, this complete narrative is #damaged pic.twitter.com/E1p8yEIa3p
— Justin Lee (@DailyJLee) Might 3, 2024
As I commented: “Shock!” (Now I can’t discover it, however I recall monitoring a CDC mannequin of an infection on the nationwide stage as a result of I knew it will fail, and it did, spectacularly, lacking IIRC Omicron.)
[4] (ER) CDC appears to have killed this off, because the hyperlink is damaged, I feel in favor of this factor. I’ll attempt to verify. UPDATE Sure, depart it to CDC to kill a web page, after which announce it was archived a day later. And heaven forfend CDC ought to clarify the place to go to get equal knowledge, if any. I preferred the ER knowledge, as a result of it appeared actually exhausting to recreation.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Flattening out to a non-zero baseline. I suppose to a tame epidemiologist it appears like “endemicity,” however to me it appears like one other tranche of lethality.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Nonetheless down. “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.
[7] (Walgreens) Slight uptick.
[8] (Cleveland) Leveling out.
[9] (Vacationers: Posivitity) Flattens.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants) JN.1 dominates totally. Nonetheless no point out of KP.2
[11] Appears to be like just like the Occasions isn’t reporting demise knowledge any extra? Perhaps I would like to return to The Economist….
Stats Watch
Provide Chain: “United States LMI Logistics Managers Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Logistics Supervisor’s Index within the US elevated to 58.3 in March 2024, from 56.5 in February, marking the quickest enlargement since September 2022. This means that the general logistics trade is experiencing wholesome development, albeit on the decrease finish. The expansion is attributed to long-planned stock expansions and improved effectivity in warehousing and transportation.” • Pennsylvania is a logistics hub, allow us to keep in mind.
Retail: “United States Used Automobile Costs YoY” [Trading Economics]. “The Manheim Used Car Worth Index for the US decreased 14% year-on-year in April 2024, following a 14.7% stoop in March which was the largest decline since December 2022.”
Tech: “TikTok sues U.S. authorities, says ban violates First Modification” [CNBC]. “TikTok is suing america authorities in an effort to cease enforcement of a invoice handed final month that seeks to drive the app’s Chinese language proprietor to promote the app or have it banned. The lawsuit, filed Tuesday within the U.S. Court docket of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, argues that the invoice, the Defending People from International Adversary Managed Functions Act, violates constitutional protections of free speech. The go well with calls the regulation an ‘unprecedented violation’ of the First Modification. ‘For the primary time in historical past, Congress has enacted a regulation that topics a single, named speech platform to a everlasting, nationwide ban,’ TikTok wrote within the lawsuit, ‘and bars each American from taking part in a novel on-line neighborhood with greater than 1 billion individuals worldwide.’ . It has not met that burden, the lawsuit acknowledged.” • I so don’t wish to get one other social media account, but when children as of late are getting all their information from TikTok, I might need to….
Manufacturing: “Some 787 Manufacturing Take a look at Information Have been Falsified, Boeing Says” [Aviation Week]. “Boeing should examine undelivered and in-production 787s to make sure some steps within the plane’s meeting have been accomplished accurately after studying that required assessments to validate the work have been recorded as full however by no means performed…. Boeing ‘voluntarily knowledgeable us in April that it could not have accomplished required inspections to verify enough bonding and grounding the place the wings be part of the fuselage on sure 787 Dreamliner airplanes,’ the company mentioned. ‘The FAA is investigating whether or not Boeing accomplished the inspections and whether or not firm staff might have falsified plane information.’… The incident gives proof that Boeing’s emphasis on spotlighting questions of safety, even when they replicate poorly on the corporate, is paying dividends. It additionally underscores how far the corporate has to go, as falsification of safety-related information is arguably trade’s most egregious non-operational regulatory violation. ‘It brings your entire manufacturing certificates (PC) into query,’ mentioned one former FAA official with intensive plane certification expertise. ‘A PC is actually an expression of belief. Contemplating all of the [Boeing issues] effervescent up … the FAA might don’t have any alternative however to imagine the falsification is widespread.’”
Manufacturing: “The shock shouldn’t be that Boeing misplaced business crew however that it completed in any respect” [Ars Technica]. “Boeing undoubtedly wish to have that call again. In hindsight, it appears apparent that the pressure of working in a fixed-price surroundings was the basic reason for lots of Boeing’s struggles with Starliner and related authorities procurement packages—a lot in order that the corporate’s Protection, House, & Safety division is unlikely to take part in fixed-price competitions any longer. In 2023, the corporate’s chief govt mentioned Boeing would ‘by no means do them once more.’… There’s a nice irony in all of this. By bidding on business crew, Boeing helped launch the US business area trade. However within the coming years, its area division is more likely to be swallowed by youthful firms that may bid much less, ship extra, and act extra expeditiously. The shock shouldn’t be that Boeing misplaced to a extra nimble competitor within the business area race. The shock is that this lumbering firm made it in any respect. For that, we must always have a good time Starliner’s impending launch and the hundreds of engineers and technicians who made it occur.” • Launch nonetheless “impending,” and I hope the crew survives.
At the moment’s Worry & Greed Index: 40 Worry (earlier shut: 39 Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 43 (Worry). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Might 6 at 1:35:49 PM ET.
Well being
“Science reveals how a surge of anger might elevate coronary heart assault danger” [NBC]. N = 280. “The findings, revealed Wednesday within the Journal of the American Coronary heart Affiliation, present that anger might certainly have an effect on the guts due to the way it impairs blood vessel operate. The researchers discovered blood vessels’ potential to dilate was considerably diminished amongst individuals within the offended group in contrast with these within the management group. Blood vessel dilation wasn’t affected within the disappointment and nervousness teams. Dilation will be regulated by endothelial cells, which line the insides of blood vessels. By dilating and contracting, blood vessels decelerate or improve the move of blood to the elements of the physique that want it. Additional assessments revealed that there was no harm to the endothelial cells or to the physique’s potential to restore any endothelial cell harm. The one subject was the dilation, the research discovered.” • Hmm.
Class Warfare
“Rising Variety of Males Don’t Wish to Work” [Newsweek]. “American males are opting out of the workforce at unexpected charges. For a lot of, it’s not a problem of not with the ability to discover a job. They’ve merely opted out altogether. The Bureau of Labor Statistics discovered solely 89 % of working age males have a job or are actively on the lookout for work. In 1950, that quantity was at 97 %…. ‘If the roles don’t meet individuals’s wants, individuals can’t work,’ Yvonne Vissing, a professor at Salem State College and an skilled on the altering position of males in society, advised Newsweek. ‘It’s not that they received’t work. They will’t, given the job choices, areas, duties, hours, pay, and environments which might be out there.’… ‘Many roles are merely not satisfying,’ Vissing mentioned. ‘Working for others who get the good thing about our bodily labor and mental property shouldn’t be rewarding both emotionally or financially. Folks wish to work doing jobs that matter to us. We wish to use our creativity. We wish to matter, and in lots of companies, staff merely don’t get handled with the respect and help that we’d like and wish. Folks stroll away from them.’” • The Bearded One known as this “alienation” in 1844: “[T]he employee’s exercise [is] not his spontaneous exercise. It belongs to a different; it’s the lack of his self.”
Information of the Wired
“Not Misplaced in a Guide” [Slate]. “Ask anybody who works with elementary-school youngsters concerning the state of studying amongst their children and also you’ll get some dire stories. Gross sales of “middle-grade” books—the classification overlaying ages 8 via 12—have been down 10 % within the first three quarters of 2023, after falling 16 % in 2022. It’s the one sector of the trade that’s underperforming in comparison with 2019. There hasn’t been a middle-grade phenomenon since Dav Pilkey’s Captain Underpants spinoff Canine Man hit the scene in 2016. New middle-grade titles are vanishing from Barnes and Noble cabinets, brokers and publishers say, on account of a brand new company coverage specializing in books the corporate can assure might be bestsellers. Most alarmingly, children in third and fourth grade are starting to cease studying for enjoyable. It’s known as the “Decline by 9,” and it’s reaching a disaster level for publishers and educators. In response to analysis by the kids’s publishers Scholastic, at age 8, 57 % of children say they learn books for enjoyable most days; at age 9, solely 35 % do. This development began earlier than the pandemic, consultants say, however the pandemic accelerated issues. “I don’t suppose it’s doable to overstate how disruptive the pandemic was on center grade readers,” one trade analyst advised Publishers Weekly. And everybody I talked to agreed that the sudden drop-off in studying for enjoyable is going on at a vital age—the very age when, in accordance with publishing lore, lifetime readers are made.” • My knee-jerk response is that politically appropriate Mrs. Grundys took all of the juice and gore out of the books. I might be flawed although!
Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of vegetation. Greens are effective! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you need your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From SV:
SV writes: “Leonotis leonurus, also called Lion’s Tail or Wild Dagga Is a member of the mint household of vegetation.
At Neighborhood Farms within the Western Cape, Summer season 2024.”
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